Since this is my last post pre-finale, I'm going to break down the remaining five from the perspective of a jury member---i.e. if I were on the jury and knew everything I currently know, would I give her/him my vote for the mil at the final tribal council? This is NOT necessarily how I see the real jury voting.
Baylor - No vote from me. She's been spunky but has been led like a little lamb the whole way through.
Jaclyn - Too wishy washy. No vote from me. It's good to be flexible & willing to make big moves but she relied too much on the swing vote position and didn't build depth in alliances with anybody but Jon, who she knew was a primo target.
Missy - She hasn't been my favorite, but I could see possibly voting for her. She formed solid alliances and made herself the most trusted player, earning valuable inside info. Playing on through the busted ankle and never considering quitting doesn't hurt my opinion of her.
Natalie - She probably deserves the win the most of anybody left. She played a quiet strategy, earning the solid trust of others along the way. I was frustrated that she didn't make her move against Jon earlier, but I can see why she wanted to wait until more of the wildcard players were eliminated before moving against her solid alliance. After seeing how she played the Alec vote off as an accident, I sort of see why she didn't make the bold Jac move last week---but it was awfully risky to hope that Jon wouldn't win immunity. She earns points back for having been the one to beat him after returning from two days at Exile.
The only reason I might not vote for Nat is because of personality. At various points throughout the game, she's come off as mean-spirited and a blatant suck up. It's one thing to get rankled over a competitor that's bested you, but many of her comments about Jon are too personal and just plain mean. Certain of her actions, like giving up rewards and volunteering for Exile, were truly vomit-worthy in their obvious suckuppage. I don't think Survivor winners need to necessarily be nice people, but I do like to see stronger character than what I've seen in Natalie.
Keith - I can't imagine a scenario in which I wouldn't vote for Keith if he made it to the final. Yes, he's made some really, really horrendous mistakes, but he's also shown that he can learn. He was awesome at this week's tribal! He's great at challenges, and let's not forget he found that hidden immunity idol and kept it a better secret than almost any other player in the history of the game. Well, until we found out that he held onto the note, der. But come on, who doesn't love an underdog? Not to mention that in the end, we can see that he's a truly good guy. He was so great with Missy after she got hurt and even won over little Baylor. He made some chauvenistic mistakes earlier in the game but seems to have ended with a decent social game.
Nicki has spoken. Who do you want to see win it all? Who do you predict for a final three?